Wyższa Szkoła Gospodarki
im. Alcide De Gasperi
BOOK CHAPTER (213-220)
Public expenditure forecasting with fuzzy time series
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Nowadays, it is of vital importance to make predictions about the future in terms of planning and strategy formulation. This can be realized by accurate and realistic analysis of information and data that have emerged from past to present. Especially, governments must make as possible as accurate and realistic prediction in order to produce an accurate planning and budget based on historical data. Public expenditure forecasting is an important factor for balance of budget. In addition, with its multiplier effect, public expenditure has distinctive role on other components of economy such as national income, employment and private consumption expenditures. That is, public expenditure and forecasting it accurately have vital importance on the economy of countries. Different approaches namely stochastic and non-stochastic approaches have been proposed in the literature for the analysis of time series like this. Particularly, in recent years, the use of non-stochastic models such as fuzzy time series approaches for the analysis of time series has become widespread. In this study, Expenditures of Central Government Budget (ECGB) of Turkey is forecasted with different fuzzy time series approach. The fuzzy time series approach is rarely applied for the forecast of public expenditures, and as far as we know this is the first of such attempts involving Turkish data. Different fuzzy time series forecasting models are applied to the data data from January 2007 to May 2013 in order to reach accurate forecasts. Obtained results from the different fuzzy time series approaches evaluate as a whole. As a result of the implementation, it is shown that fuzzy time series approaches can be effectively used to forecast of ECGB
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